Big Money Bet Guide

Just a few days from now the UFC will invade Germany with the force of the Allies, the Soviet Red Army, and David Haselhoff all rolled into one. If you’re anything like us, you’re sitting there right now wondering how you can make a quick, labor-free buck off the whole thing. Take a good hard look at the latest betting lines, from BestFightOdds.com, and let’s see what we can come up with:

Wanderlei Silva (+126) vs. Rich Franklin (-139)
Cain Velasquez (-181) vs. Cheick Kongo (+165)
Mike Swick (-200) vs. Ben Saunders (+190)
Marcus Davis (-200) vs. Dan Hardy (+180)
Spencer Fisher (-188) vs. Caol Uno (+175)
Mirko "Cro Cop" Filipovic (-390) vs. Mostapha Al Turk (+350)
Dennis Siver (-170) vs. Dale Hartt (+150)
Terry Etim (-350) vs. Justin Buchholz (+300)
Paul Taylor (-350) vs. Peter Sobotta (+300)
Paul Kelly (-400) vs. Rolando Delgado (+325)
John Hathaway (-140) vs. Rick Story (+120)
Stefan Struve (-130) vs. Denis Stojnic (+110)

So where’s our money going?

- Franklin is the favorite against Silva because you just don’t know which Wandy you’re going to see these days, while “Ace” has been pretty consistent of late, even if it’s consistently less than spectacular. He’s only a slight favorite because there’s always a chance Silva could come out like it’s 2002 and floor him in the first two minutes. I doubt that will happen. We’re going to see a more patient Silva, but I still think Franklin presents a style problem for him if he can stay on the move and pick him apart. It might not be pretty, but Franklin takes a decision. The Bet: $20 on Franklin.

- Looking at Kongo/Velasquez, you really have to ask yourself who can and will impose their gameplan on the other guy. If Velasquez commits himself to wrestling Kongo, there’s no reason he shouldn’t be able to take this. If he tries to play kickboxer like he did against Denis Stojnic, he’s asking to get knocked out. Unless he’s an absolute moron, Velasquez knows this. And even if he were a moron his trainers at AKA would have drilled it in him by now. He’s going to wrestle his way to a win here and there’s nothing Kongo can do about it. At those odds, however, I’m laying off.

- So let’s talk underdogs for a moment. Al-Turk has got nothing for Cro Cop, Saunders really isn’t ready for Swick, Story’s making his UFC debut (and you know how that goes), Buchholz, Sobotta, and Delgado are all “opponents” for the sake of this card. That leaves us with Dan Hardy, Caol Uno, and Denis Stojnic. Of those three, I’ll take Hardy and Uno. Hardy has the best line and Davis is a good style match-up for him if he can use his superior speed. Uno’s been out the game almost a year, but Spencer Fisher hasn’t beaten anyone really good in at least two years. The Bet(s): $20 on Hardy and Uno.

Absolutely Don’t Bet Against: Cro Cop. Al-Turk is a gimme opponent for him even if he’s not fully restored to the headkicker of old. His experience alone is enough to win this.

Official Cage Potato Parlay: Franklin + Velasquez + Cro Cop + Swick